Adrian Beltre likely isn’t the first name that comes to your mind when you think of future MLB Hall of Famers, but the Texas Rangers’ third basemen definitely deserves your attention.
The 36-year-old has continued to add to his already-impressive resume this season, most recently becoming just the fourth player ever to hit for the cycle three times in their career on Monday night in the Rangers’ 12-9 win over the Houston Astros. The feat, which he accomplished in just five innings, puts Beltre in an exclusive class with Babe Herman, Bob Meusel and John Reilly, who all joined the record books before World War II.
It may be one of the final touches on a career worthy of serious Hall of Fame consideration.
For 18 MLB seasons, Beltre has been a leader at a position which has produced less Hall of Fame inductees than any other position in the sport. He now ranks fifth all-time in hits, home runs, RBIs and wins above replacement among players who spent the majority of their careers at the “hot corner.” He’s also second all-time among third basemen in defensive WAR, trailing only Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson. In fact, just 19 total players have ever posted a better career dWAR than Beltre.
Beltre is also within reach of yet another exclusive club: the nine-member 400-home run, 3,000-hit club. With just 301 more hits, he would join Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Stan Musial, Rafael Palmiero, Cal Ripken, Dave Winfield and Carl Yastremski — all of whom are Hall of Famers except for Palmeiro.
This is a player who now has four All-Star appearances, four Silver Slugger awards, four Gold Glove Awards and four top ten finishes in the MVP voting. Sure, these figures don’t jump off the page individually, but when combined, they prove Beltre was one of the most well-rounded players of his era.
It should also be noted that the year (2004) Beltre finished second in the MVP voting, he was runner-up to Barry Bonds, who was in the midst of a PED-fueled streak of four consecutive MVPs.
Despite all of this, there will be some that say Beltre just doesn’t have the aura of a Hall of Famer. They won’t necessarily be wrong, either.
In 18 seasons, he’s only appeared in the playoffs three times, making it past the first round just once (2011). His stint with the Seattle Mariners is also viewed as a bit of a black eye, as he failed to live up to the expectations that come with five-year, $64 million contracts.
That said, these knocks are not strong enough to prevent Beltre from entering the Hall of Fame — especially if he really was a “clean” performer during baseball’s PED era.
The most compelling case, however, may be Beltre’s JAWS score — an advanced statistic that averages a player’s career WAR with the WAR figures that the player averaged during their seven-year prime. This stat is particularly useful for judging the resumes of Hall of Fame contenders like Beltre who had lengthy MLB careers.
According to the data, Beltre is one of just ten non-Hall of Famers who have ever produced a JAWS score that’s above the average Hall of Famer despite owning a predicted JAWS score that’s lower than the average Hall of Famer. As FiveThirtyEight notes, this discrepancy exists because predicted JAWS does not accurately forecast a player’s defensive contributions — a key part of Beltre’s game.
Compared to other third basemen, Beltre ranks sixth all-time in JAWS, trailing only Mike Schmidt, Eddie Matthews, Wade Boggs and George Brett — who are all in the Hall of Fame — and likely future HOF Chipper Jones. Beltre is also ahead of Hall of Famers Ron Santo (seventh), Brooks Robinson (eighth) and Paul Molitor (ninth) on this list.
While Beltre didn’t have an iconic playing career like Derek Jeter, with each season he’s solidified his status as one of the best, well-rounded third basemen to ever play the game. If that’s not worthy of the Hall of Fame, I don’t know what is.